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  The EUR/USD is set to finish the week almost flat, gaining 0.05%. The shared currency daily chart is neutral-to-downwards, but the hourly is neutral-to-upwards. EUR/USD Price Analysis: A daily close above 1.0200 could pave the way towards 1.0300; otherwise, it might drop towards 1.0096. The EUR/USD is trading at 1.0220, after hitting a daily high at 1.0254, but later tumbled towards the daily low at 1.0145 on elevated US inflation data. In June, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose by 6.8% YoY, fueling expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes, despite the market's pricing in only 80 bps of tightening. EUR/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook From a daily chart perspective, the  EUR/USD remains  neutral-to-downward biased, helped by the 20-day EMA lying below the exchange rate at 1.0167. Nevertheless, the EUR/USD, unable to capitalize on an upbeat market mood, and broad US dollar weakness, keeps the shared currency exposed to further selling pre...

  "The Federal Reserve is going to have to do more with interest rates but details depend on the flow of data in coming months," Atlanta  Fed President Raphael Bostic  said on Friday, as reported by Reuters Additional takeaways "The country is not in recession, but the real question is whether current conditions are creating hardship, inflation needs to be addressed." There is still more work to be done on bringing demand and supply into balance." "Rate hikes could hurt job growth, but so far seems there is momentum for continued hiring." "Possible to control inflation while limiting the number of families who have really bad outcomes." "The US is a ways from a recession, though concerned that recession fears could become self-fulfilling." Market reaction These comments don't seem to be having a significant impact on the greenback's performance against its rivals. As of writing, the US Dollar Index was down 0.25% on the day...

   UOB Group’s Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting assess the latest inflation figures in the Malaysian economy. Key Takeaways “Headline inflation breached the 3% level for the first time this year at 3.4% y/y in Jun (from 2.8% in May). It came in higher than ours and Bloomberg consensus of 3.2%. Price pressures broadened with more consumer price index (CPI) components recording larger price increases last month compared to the preceding month, led by food and transport components.” “We expect CPI growth to jump above 4.0% in 2H22 after averaging 2.5% in 1H22. Our 2H22 inflation  outlook  largely rests on high commodity prices, year-ago low base effects, persistent currency weakness, changes in some staple food prices (i.e. chicken, eggs and cooking oil), and recovering domestic demand. The new targeted fuel subsidy mechanism, which is currently under pilot testing, will pose upside risks to our inflation outlook should it be implemented over the ...

  GBP/USD jumped to a fresh multi-week high amid the emergence of fresh USD selling. A positive intraday turnaround in the risk sentiment weighed on the safe-haven buck. Brexit woes might cap gains for the British pound ahead of the crucial FOMC decision. The GBP/USD pair attracted some dip-buying near the 1.1960 area on Monday and shot to a nearly three-week peak during the mid-European session. The pair was last seen trading around the 1.2065-1.2070 region, up over 0.50% for the day. Friday's better-than-expected flash UK PMI prints reaffirmed market bets for a 50 bps rate hike by the Bank of England in August and continued acting as a tailwind for the British pound. On the other hand, a positive turnaround in the global risk sentiment - as depicted by a strong intraday rally in the equity markets - weighed on the safe-haven US dollar. In fact, the USD Index languished near its lowest level since July 5 touched on Friday, which, in turn, was seen as another factor...

  The index posts decent gains beyond the 107.00 mark. US yields extend the decline across the curve on Friday. Flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs next on tap in the docket. The greenback, in terms of the  US Dollar Index (DXY) , leaves behind Thursday’s pullback and regains the area beyond 107.00 the figure at the end of the week. US Dollar Index now looks to data, FOMC The index extends the erratic performance so far this week and advances north of the 107.00 yardstick, as market participants seen to have already digested the start of the hiking cycle by the ECB on Thursday. Contrasting with the upbeat tone in the buck, yields in the US cash markets continue their march south and already navigate in multi-session lows across the curve ahead of the key FOMC event due on July 27. In the NA session, the advanced Manufacturing and Services PMIs for the month of July will be the only releases of note later in the NA session. What to look for around USD The index looks si...

  Gold price witnesses selling for the second straight day and drops to a nearly one-year low. The prospects for a further rise in interest rates continues to drive flows away from the metal. A positive risk tone exerts additional pressure; modest USD weakness fails to lend support. Gold price  is extending the overnight breakdown-momentum below the $1,700 mark and is continuing to lose ground for the second successive day on Thursday. The downward trajectory is draging the XAUUSD to its lowest level since August 2021, around the $1,689-$1,688 region during the early European session. Gold price weighed down by hawkish central banks The prospects for more  interest rate hikes by major central banks  is becoming a key factor contributing to driving flows away from the non-yielding gold. The European Central Bank is all set to raise interest rates for the first time since 2011 on Thursday. A Reuters report indicate...

  Canada CPI Overview Statistics Canada will release the latest consumer inflation figures for June later during the early North American session on Wednesday, at 12:30 GMT. The headline CPI is expected to ease from 1.4% in May to 0.9% during the reported month. The yearly rate, however, is anticipated to surge to its highest level since 1982 and come in at 8.4% in June, up from 7.7% in the previous month. More importantly, the Bank of Canada's Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is estimated to rise 0.5% MoM in June and accelerate to 6.7% on a yearly basis from the 6.1% in May. According to analysts at RBC Economics: “This continued acceleration was likely largely driven by higher food and energy prices – both of which have been boosted by global pressures. Oil prices rose another 4.8% from May and consumer food prices have been surging in part due to higher commodity prices and acute supply chain disruptions. Roughly half of inflation recently has been drive...

  Previewing the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) upcoming policy meeting, Rabobank analysts said that they expect the BoJ to revise up its inflation forecasts and lower its growth expectations. We see USD/JPY returning to the 130 area in Q2 next year "If  USD/JPY  were to spike to 145 or beyond, the inflationary impact of the BoJ’s easy policy would become greater and market speculation that the BoJ may capitulate on its YCC policy would likely increase."

 The euro firmed to a one-week high on Monday, benefiting from the dollar's retreat after several Federal Reserve officials signaled they did not favour stepping up the rate hiking pace. The comments late last week knocked the dollar off two-decade highs and boosted global stocks and non-dollar currencies, especially the euro. The mood was also broadly helped by stimulus support signals from China. The greenback index, measuring its rate against six global currencies, is now almost 2% off last week's peak and by 1030 GMT , stood 0.5% lower at 107.27. The euro, the main component in that index, firmed 0.7% at $1.016, having plunged last week below parity to the dollar. "With equity markets still in positive territory, risk appetite is back so the comments from Fed governor (Christopher) Waller, ramming back on the 100 bps rise, have had the desired impact," said Derek Halpenny, head of research at MUFG. Waller and St Louis Fed governor James Bullard said they preferre...

  EUR/USD   has come within a whisker of parity. How low the pair goes is likely to depend on whether or not Russia wants to worsen the economic war with Europe, economists at Rabobank report. USD strength may not relent until next year “From a fundamental perspective, it is not difficult to paint a scenario in which EUR/USD could break below 1.00 and hold at lower levels into the winter months. That has been the case for a while.” “If the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline is switched back on, in time next week after its scheduled maintenance, the EUR is likely to be granted a reprieve. That said, even if the EUR is boosted, we expect USD strength to dominate into next year suggesting upside for EUR/USD could be limited even on good news regarding Nord Stream.” “For now, we retain our one-month forecast of EUR/USD 1.03. Evidence that Russian gas supplies into Europe will be further disrupted into the winter would cause us to downgrade our forecasts for the EUR further.”

  Money markets on Tuesday scaled back   European Central Bank   (ECB) rate hike bets to 137 basis points (bps) by the end of the year from 145 bps on Monday amid recession fears, Reuters reported. Market reaction This headline doesn't seem to be having a noticeable impact on the shared currency's performance against its rivals. As of writing,  the EUR/USD pair  was trading at 1.0010, where it was down 0.28% on a daily basis. Meanwhile, markets remain cautious on Tuesday with the Euro Stoxx 600 Index losing 0.3% on the day.   

  UOB Group’s Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting assess the latest labour market report in the Malaysian economy. Key Takeaways “Malaysia’s labour market recovery continued to gain traction in May, supported by the full reopening of economic and social activities as well as country borders since Apr. Both the labour force participation rate and employment increased further to a fresh high of 69.5% and 15.90mn persons respectively (Apr: 69.4% and 15.85mn persons). This helped to keep the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.9% in May.” “Record hiring was again propelled by the continuing recruitment in almost all economic sectors, expect for the mining & quarrying industry which recorded a decline in employment for the 22nd straight month. Services sector, which made up about 58% of the national  GDP , remained the key driver of overall employment in Malaysia with wholesale & retail trade, information & communication, and food & beverage service...

  EUR/JPY attempts a mild rebound following Wednesday’s pullback. Immediately to the downside appears the 100-day SMA. EUR/JPY  manages to regain some composure and advances beyond 139.00 the figure, although gains did not stick so far. The cross now faces prospects for extra decline after breaking below the 4-month support line, today around 139.45. That said, the next contention appears at the July low at 137.26 (July 6) ahead of the 100-day SMA, today at 135.93. In the longer run, the constructive stance in the cross remains well propped up by the 200-day SMA at 133.03. EUR/JPY daily chart

  "It is with sadness that I am resigning as Housing Minister," Conservative MP for Pudsey Stuart Andrew announced via Twitter on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Sajid Javid, former British Health Minister who quit in protest at Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Tuesday, told Parliament that it had become increasingly difficult to be in PM's team.  "It's not fair on conservative voters who expect better standards," Javid added. "At some point, we have to conclude that enough is enough. That point is now." Market reaction GBP/USD stays under heavy bearish pressure on Wednesday and was last seen trading at its weakest level since March 2020 at 1.1877, losing 0.67% on a daily basis.

  German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Tuesday that they will stick to their plan of prioritizing private households in case of a gas emergency, as reported by Reuters. "The gas market situation is tense, cannot say whether more protection measures will be needed," Habeck added. "We want to prevent a domino effect in the gas market." Market reaction Safe-haven flows continue to dominate the financial markets following these remarks. As of writing, Germany's DAX 30 Index was down 1.5% on the day at 12,580.50 points.

  Gold Price returns to the red zone despite weaker US Treasury yields. Markets remain cautious ahead of the Fed Minutes and an impending death cross. XAUUSD could resume sell-off below $1,800 amid light trading conditions. Gold Price is resuming its downside momentum at the start of a fresh week, having witnessed an impressive rebound on Friday. The  US dollar  is consolidating the minor rebound amid the renewed downtick in the Treasury yields and falling S&P 500 futures. The mixed market mood and holiday-thinned trading have kept gold bulls at bay. A death cross lurking on the daily chart is offering the much-needed boost to XAUUSD sellers. Attention now turns towards Wednesday’s FOMC June meeting’s minutes for the next price direction in the bright metal. In the meantime, the Fed rate hike expectations and recession fears will continue to dominate markets and influence the dynamics of the bullion price.